The Wild, Wild World
Foreign policy has been pretty exciting, as usual. I’d like to discuss a couple of stories that reflect America’s difficulties in engaging with developing nations.
Biden’s “Cannibals” in Papua New Guinea
President Joe Biden, gaffe-prone as usual, claimed that his uncle, Army Air Corps pilot Ambrose Finnegan, was “shot down in New Guinea” and implied that the military “never found the body because there used to be — there were a lot of cannibals, for real, in that part of New Guinea.” While there have historically been some tribes in insular Southeast Asia, who engaged in cannibalism. it’s a bit ridiculous to attribute that generally to the extremely diverse nation of Papua New Guinea, and the country’s Prime Minister, James Marape, encouraged “President Biden to get the White House to look into cleaning up these remains of WWII so the truth about missing servicemen like Ambrose Finnegan can be put to rest.” Given the importance of maintaining allies in Asia as China pushes small countries to join its sphere of influence, this seemed to be an unforced error.
Nigerien Coup Drama
In the West African country of Niger, a coup last July led to the installation of a military government increasingly unfavorable to the West and more amenable to China, Iran, and Russia. This saga has culminated in the announcement that the US military will withdraw from Niger, to the great concern of terror hawks, as Niger is a battlefront against Islamic terrorism. Moreover, the military junta is leaning heavily on mining company GoviEx to start operation at one of its uranium mines… It should concern the general public that Niger, one of the largest uranium producers in the world, is falling into the orbit of China, Iran, and Russia. I’ll be watching this story.
The Political Campaign
Closer to home, I owe you guys more maps. This week, we look back at the gubernatorial elections:
With regard to Washington and Delaware (safe Democrat) and Utah, North Dakota, Indiana, and West Virginia (safe Republican), I agree with the default ratings on 270toWin (which are taken from various prognosticators), so I won’t comment much.
Further, I agree that Vermont, one of America’s bluest states, is likely Republican, as its incumbent liberal Republican Governor, Phil Scott, is running for re-election after consistently growing margins of victory (8.7% in 2016, 15.9% in 2018, 41.1% in 2020, and 47.2% in 2022). Given his state’s extreme blue tilt and the presidential election this year, there’s always a risk, but Scott looks likely to win nonetheless.
Things get interesting regarding Montana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. The consensus seems to indicate likely Republican for Montana and Missouri, but I’d say the presidential election will make the Republican nominees there prohibitive favorites. New Hampshire and North Carolina were listed as toss-ups. I would say that former New Hampshire Attorney General and US Senator Kelly Ayotte seems like a reasonable favorite, as she leads her Republican in the primary and leads (much more modestly) two of her potential Democratic opponents for the general election, thus I rate New Hampshire “leans Republican,” and given New Hampshire’s tendency toward ticket splitting (including for gubernatorial and presidential elections in 2016 and 2020), I see a reasonable chance the same thing happens this November. I rate North Carolina as “tilts Democrat” simply because Democrat (and current Attorney General) Josh Stein will be replacing retiring Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who won both of his elections as Donald Trump won at the top of the ticket, and Republican nominee (current Lt. Gov.) Mark Robinson is a principled, vocal conservative, though it’s pretty close, so I leave it at “tilts.”
For tonight, that’s a wrap! More next week!
Very insightful as always! 🌱 I really enjoyed the section about Niger. That a very important piece of news to keep an eye on